Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
